- Economic contractive period to have an intermediate bottom at 2012 and again near 2018 with first significant recovery starting in 2023.
- Inflation presure will result from stimulus in fall 2009 into early 2010. Then deflation will persist beginning strongly near mid 2010 and possibly as early as fall 2009 for several years.
- Gold will not be a safe haven according to Dent.
- Dow bottom near 4800 near the late 2009 to 2010 period (but Dent has a history of over predicting the magnitude of market fluctuations).
- Home Prices within the low end of the range (starter homes) will hit bottom and start to recover around 2013
- Trade up homes, vacation homes, and McMansions will recover after small homes do ...probably around Spring 2014.
- Agriculture and Energy will rise significanlty in 2009 and 2010. Ag business and Energy stocks will outperform market over the long term based on reaching maximum oil output combined with continued political strife in middle east.
Dent's book comes when there is a lot of questions about the future of the economy. One point of debate is whether we are facing inflation or deflation in the future. While it's not a simple either/or question, Dent seems to down play risks associated with inflation saying that deflation is going to be the longer term trend. This seems like a point of debate since current Federal debt levels are up to $30k/person -a strong indicator for the inflation trend in the near term.
He also includes a new trend that helps him predict wars and politcal conflict by using what he calls his geo-political cycle trend, which while interesting seems to be a little harder to understand than the tried and true babyboomer spending wave. Dent's main thesis continues to hold true and I love his arguments on the Baby Boomer driven economy. 4 stars.
